Alakbarova S.O., Hamidova Z.A., 2025. Geospatial debris flow hazard analysis in the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus: data integration for sustainable development. GeoRisk World, Vol. XIX, No. 2–3, pp. 38–51, https://doi.org/10.25296/1997-8669-2025-19-2-3-38-51.
This study presents an integrated geospatial analysis using remote sensing data, geographic information systems-based multi-criteria evaluation, and terrain modeling to assess debris flow-prone zones. Debris flows represent one of the most significant natural hazards in mountainous environments, particularly where steep terrain, climatic variability, and land use pressure combine to increase their frequency and impact. The primary aim of this study is to assess the social and economic vulnerability of mountain settlements situated on the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus, where increasing debris flows and geomorphological hazards pose significant threats to infrastructure, population safety, and regional sustainability. The study employed geographic information systems mapping, morphometric analysis based on digital elevation models, field observations, and a comprehensive evaluation of empirical and statistical data collected between 2000 and 2024. Analysis indicates that over the past decades, various natural hazards, including debris flows, have occurred repeatedly within the study area. In particular, within the Kurmukhchay — Dashagilchay and Tikanlichay — Girdimanchay interbasin zones, these processes have led to the expansion of debris flow source areas and hazardprone zones, as well as an increase in economic losses in areas with high population density. Approximately 65–70% of these areas exhibit high susceptibility to debris flow hazard, and a region-specific sustainability index has been developed through geospatial analysis. This study employs the analytic hierarchy process as a scientifically robust method for evaluating debris flow hazard in the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus, integrating both physical and socio-spatial factors. Geospatial maps of morphometric stress and debris flow hazard on the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus were developed based on empirical data, providing essential insights for hazard assessment, risk identification, sustainable land use planning, and regional resilience. A new integrative model for integrating the economic impact of risks on regional development has been introduced. The findings emphasize that physical geography and geomorphological threats such as debris flows, when combined with weak infrastructure and socio-economic fragility, pose a critical barrier to sustainable mountain development.
1. Alakbarova S.O., 2025. Integrating spatial risk analysis into sustainable territorial development: a complex approach in the context of the Shaki-Zagatala economic region. Journal of the Bulgarian Geographical Society, Vol. 53, pp. 157–186, https://doi.org/10.3897/jbgs.e159882.
2. Darvishi L., Daryaei M.G., Kouchi A.H.S., 2020. Comparison of statistical modeling and AHP methods in fire risk assessment in oak forests of Iran. Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 9, ID 229.
3. Duleba S., 2020. Introduction and comparative analysis of the multi-level parsimonious AHP methodology in a public transport development decision problem. Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 73, Issue 2, pp. 230–243, https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2020.1824553.
4. Saaty R.W., 1987. The analytic hierarchy process — what it is and how it is used. Mathematical Modelling, Vol. 9, No. 3–5, pp. 161–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(87)90473-8.
5. Schmitz M.H., Malek Ž., do Couto E.V., Gentil E., Cardozo A.L.P., Moretto Y., da Silveira N.S., Agostinho A.A., 2025. Unsustainable land use trajectories in the Tocantins/Araguaia basin: Insights from future scenario modeling. Ambio, Vol. 54, pp. 1185–1198, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-025-02137-5.
6. Alakbarova S.O., 2024. Anthropogenic factor as a component of debris flow processes in Azerbaijan (a case study of the Katekhchay River basin). I Belarusian geographical Congress dedicated to the 90th anniversary of the Faculty of Geography and Geoinformatics of the Belarusian State University and the 70th anniversary of the Belarusian Geographical Society, Materials of the International scientific and practical Conference, Minsk, 2024, pp. 17–23. (in Russian)
7. Alakbarova S.O., 2024. Dynamics of debris flow events in the Kurmukhchay River basin (Azerbaijan). GeoRisk World, Vol. XVIII, No. 1, pp. 40–49, https://doi.org/10.25296/1997-8669-2024-18-1-40-49. (in Russian)
8. Alekperova S.O., 2018. Impact of mudflows on the natural and economıc systems of Greater Caucasus and methods of fıght agaınst them (within the Azerbaijani part of Greater Caucasus). Grozny Natural Scıence Bulletin, Vol. 3, No. 4(12), pp. 5–11, https://doi.org/10.25744/genb.2018.12.4.001.
9. Alekperova S.O., 2024. Assessment of debris flow rısk on populatıon settlement ın mountaın regıons of Azerbaıjan (a case of the Shinchay River basin). Debris flows: disasters, risk, forecast, protection, Proceedings of the 7th International Conference, Chengdu, China, 2024, pp. 28–37. (in Russian)
10. Alekperova S.O., Gasimova S.G., 2024. Assessment of natural-technogenic risk on highways of Gazakh-Tovuz economic region. News of the Tula state university. Sciences of Earth, Vol. 1, pp. 25–38. (in Russian)
11. Alekperova S.O., Gasimova S.G., 2024. Economic and geographical study of the impact of mudflows on the economy of the Gazakh-Tovuz economic region. Geography and Water Resources, No. 1, pp. 16–24. (in Russian)
12. Alizadeh E.K., Tarikhazer S.A., 2010. Dynamics of changes in the structure of dangerous natural disasters in the Azerbaijani part of the Greater Caucasus in the context of global change. Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 49–55. (in Russian)
13. Babakhanov N.A., 2013. Natural disasters: their manifestations in Azerbaijan, damage caused, and prevention measures, in R.M. Mamedov. Elm, Baku. (in Russian)
14. Budagov B.A., 1969. Geomorphology of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus (within Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic). Elm, Baku. (in Russian)
15. Budagov B.A, Babakhanov N.A., 2002. Natural destructive phenomena and their economic consequences (a case of the Republic of Azerbaijan). In collection of papers V.M. Kotlyakov (ed.), Natural processes: geographical, ecological, and socio-economic aspects. Publishing house of the ENAS Innovation Center, Moscow, pp. 168–178. (in Russian)
16. Hamidova Z.A., 2008. Exodynamic stress fields of the Eastern Caucasus (within Azerbaijan). Issues of Geography and Geoecology, No. 3–4, рр. 56–60. (in Russian)
17. Hamidova Z.A., 2011. Assessment of morphodynamic stress of the relief of mudflow-prone areas (using the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus as an example). Extended abstract of PhD Thesis, Institute of Geography named after acad. H.A. Aliyev, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, Baku. (in Russian)
18. Krylenko V.I., Krylenko I.V., Dzaganiia E.V., Dzaganiia M.Yu., 2024. General patterns of natural debris flows formation in the Western Caucasus (Sochi area). GeoRisk World, Vol. XVIII, No. 1, pp. 26–39, https://doi.org/10.25296/1997-8669-2024-18-1-26-39. (in Russian)
19. Mamiyeva S.A., Alekperova S.O., 2025. Activation of mudflow phenomena in modern conditions and ways of their control on the example of the Lesser Caucasus (within Azerbaijan). Vector Geosciences, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 4–15. (in Russian)
20. Mamiyeva S.A., Hamidova Z.A., Alekberova S.O., 2015. Mudflow danger in the Lesser Caucasus and assessing of impact of mudflow on economic systems (for example northeast slope of the Minor Caucasus). Geography and Natural Resources, Vol. 2, pp. 35–40. (in Russian)
21. Mammadov S.G., Alakbarova S.O., Hamidova Z.A., İsmaylova L.A., 2017. Investigation of morphometric indicators of the relief of mudflow basins on the basis of radar satellite images (on the example of Shinchay–Damiraparanchay basins). Bulletin of Moscow Region State University, Series: Natural Sciences No. 2, pp. 59–70, https://doi.org/10.18384/2310-7189-2017-2-59-70. (in Russian)
22. Mardanov I.E., 1965. Geomorphologic conditions of mudflow development on the southern slope of the Main Caucasus Ridge (within the Azerbaijan SSR). Extended abstract of PhD Thesis, Institute of Geography, Academy of Sciences of the Azerbaijan SSR. (in Russian)
23. Medeu A.R., Blagoveshchensky V.P., Ranova S.U., 2019. Assessment and mapping of debris flow hazard in the Kishi and Ulken Almaty river basins. Eurasian Union of Scientists, Vol. 3(60), pp. 9–12. (in Russian)
24. Medeu A.R., Popov N.V., Ranova S.U., Kamalbekova A.N., Aldabergen U.R., 2023. Glacial debris flow hazard and debris flow protection measures in Ulken Almaty river basin (Kazakhstan). GeoRisk World, Vol. XVII, No. 4, pp. 10–26, https://doi.org/10.25296/1997-8669-2023-17-4-10-26. (in Russian)
25. Raimbekov Yu.Kh., Marodaseynov F.O., 2019. Hazardous natural processes and phenomena in small catchments of the Gunt River basin (Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, Tajikistan). GeoRisk World, Vol. XIII, No. 2, pp. 52–62, https://doi.org/10.25296/1997-8669-2019-13-2-52-62. (in Russian)
26. Tarikhazer S.A., 2023. Study of the Shamakhi district (Azerbaijan) territory susceptibility to landslide processes. GeoRisk World, Vol. XVII, No. 4, pp. 68–79, https://doi.org/10.25296/1997-8669-2023-17-4-68-79. (in Russian)
27. Tarikhazer S.А., 2024. Catalogue of the landslide events in Azerbaijan. MAKS Press, Moscow, https://doi.org/10.29003/m3801.978-5-317-07144-8. (in Russian)
28. Tarikhazer S.A.G., Alakbarova S.O.G., 2014. Dynamics of intensification of mudflow hazard in mountain regions and their influence on natural and economic system (the Azerbaijan part of the Greater Caucasus is an example). Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Geography, Geoecology, No. 1, pp. 28–38. (in Russian)
29. Tarikhazer S.A., Hamidova Z.A., Alakbarova S.O., 2013. Assessment of geodynamic activity of mudflow phenomena in mountain geocomplexes (on the example of the Azerbaijani part of the Greater Caucasus). Materials of the International scientific and practical Conference of young scientists, dedicated to the 95th anniversary of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, 2013, pp. 396–403. (in Russian)
30. The official site of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2025. Statistical data. URL: https://fhn.gov.az/en/statistics/statistical-data (accessed: 25 April 2025).
