GeoRisk World, Vol. XIX, No. 2–3/2025
Skvortsov A.G., Aronov A.G., Sadurtdinov M.S., Tsarev A.M., Aronov G.A.
Skvortsov A.G., Aronov A.G., Sadurtdinov M.S., Tsarev A.M., Aronov G.A., 2025. Seismic methods of monitoring and forecasting of geodynamic and technogenic processes. GeoRisk World, Vol. XIX, No. 2–3, pp. 64–78, https://doi.org/10.25296/1997-8669-2025-19-2-3-64-78.
Earth Cryosphere Institute of the Tyumen Scientific Centre, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences has developed a method of multi-azimuthal multi-wave seismic exploration for monitoring and forecasting geodynamic processes. This technique was originally developed and widely used to study slope processes in Moscow, at the mouth of the Pechora River and on the Yamal Peninsula. The method is based on studying the spatio-temporal patterns of the velocity distribution of seismic waves, as well as their anisotropy and the ratio of longitudinal and transverse waves’ velocities. Its advantage is that it is highly effective in early stages of preparing for geodynamic events and allows for spatio-temporal forecasting. The experience of studying the geological structure using reflected transverse SH waves on territories where deep technogenic processes are present suggests that this technique can also be applied to investigate endogenous geodynamic processes. This assumption has been successfully confirmed through the collaboration between the Earth Cryosphere Institute of the Tyumen Scientific Centre, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences and Center for Geophysical Monitoring, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, on the territory of the Soligorsk mining district (Starobinsky potash deposit), in Belarus, in 2021. The following research objects were selected: 1) tectonic disturbance; 2) area of potential subsidence in the underground mine working; 3) proximity to large salt dumps. The studies have shown that the basic patterns of seismic characteristics changes in the nearsurface part of the geological section, which were established during the preparation of slope processes, are generally applicable to other geodynamic processes. The multi-azimuthal multi-wave seismic exploration technique can therefore be used for their monitoring and spatio-temporal forecasting. Additionally, positive experience has been gained with the use of the multi-azimuthal multi-wave seismic exploration method for studying geocryological processes to date.
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ANDREY G. SKVORTSOV*
Earth Cryosphere Institute of the Tyumen Scientific Centre, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences; Tyumen, Russia; agskvortsov@mail.ru
Address: Bld. 86, Malygina St., 625026, Tyumen, Russia
ARKADY G. ARONOV
Center for Geophysical Monitoring, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus; Minsk, Belarus; aronov@cgm.by
Address: Bld. 1/3, Academician Kuprevich St., 220084, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
MARAT S. SADURTDINOV
Earth Cryosphere Institute of the Tyumen Scientific Centre, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences; Tyumen, Russia; mr_sadurtdinov@mail.ru
ANDREY M. TSAREV
Earth Cryosphere Institute of the Tyumen Scientific Centre, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences; Tyumen, Russia; tsarev.am@gmail.com
GENADY A. ARONOV
Center for Geophysical Monitoring, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus; Minsk, Belarus; director@cgm.by